There are 67 new cases of COVID-19 in BC today, bringing the provincial total to 792 — of which 391 are in the Vancouver Coastal Health Authority region. There have been two additional deaths due to the virus in the province.
Today’s provincial briefing was focused on the modelling provincial health authorities have been working on to chart both the spread of the virus in BC and the province’s capacity to treat increasing numbers of patients who may require hospitalization.
Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry stressed that while these models have influenced provincial planning, they should not be viewed as iron-clad predictions about what the pandemic in BC will end up looking like. She also stressed that the province’s targeted testing strategy — informed by the experience of other jurisdictions — is influencing modelling, as not all cases of COVID-19 are captured in official statistics.
After giving those caveats, Henry said there is reason to be cautiously optimistic about the effectiveness of the physical distancing measures that have been implemented in BC. Referring to a chart tracking the growth of cases in BC, she highlighted a drop in the average daily increase in cases from 24 per cent to 12 per cent around March 21.
Henry was emphatic, however, that it was still very early days for the dynamic modelling that can assess the effectiveness of specific policy changes and that people should not interpret this drop in the average daily increase as a sign they can let up on their physical distancing.
“I hope this is motivation for people to double down on what we’re doing,” she said. “And the modellers have shown us that if we do this right, it is what is going to save us.”
The model estimates that BC would have over 200 cases per million people now if it had not taken the measures it has, compared to the 130 per million it has actually recorded.
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Addressing the BC health system’s capacity to absorb any surges in demand driven by the virus, Minister of Health Adrian Dix said the province is using data from China’s Hubei province and northern Italy to inform its planning.
Under a Hubei-like scenario, said Dix, it is reasonably likely the province will be able to absorb increased demand for critical care using 17 primary COVID-19 care sites.
If the province were to experience a scenario closer to what northern Italy is experiencing, all available care sites would be needed to meet critical care demands and some less acute patients would need to be served off-hospital to preserve hospital beds for COVID-19 patients.
Dix also applauded the nightly displays of public gratitude people are giving front line health workers, but stressed that public support must not stop there.
“But that has to be extended 24/7,” he said. “If we’re going to support health care workers, that means following the orders of Dr. Henry 100 per cent. That’s how you bend the projections — bend the curve — is to do that and that’s how we express our solidarity with the extraordinary people in our health care system.”
Stay up to date on UBC information related to COVID-19 by visiting ubyssey.ca/covid-19, the websites of the BCCDC, the Public Health Agency of Canada or the World Health Organization. The province has set up a dedicated COVID-19 phone line at 1-888-COVID19 or text at 1-888-268-4319. For updates on UBC’s response to COVID-19, visit ubc.ca/campus-notifications/
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